Monthly Archives: February 2012

if history repeats itself… (post Facebook IPO predictions)

If history repeats itself, the Facebook IPO will mean:

– a bunch of second-tier social media companies go public to satisfy
investor demand for “social media allocations”
http://cdixon.org/2011/06/16/allocation-investing-and-the-social-premium/
(facebook’s reportedly small float of 5b will make this more likely)

– high private valuations for social media companies will last at
least another year

– the press will write thousands of breathless stories that make it
seem like the future of western culture depends on new facebook
revenue streams (see coverage of google’s business model post-IPO)

– facebook will continue to do small talent acquisitions until they
have their “Google Video” moment and then like all mature tech
companies will start acquiring real businesses for 1b+ valuations. see
last paragraph of
http://cdixon.org/2011/12/10/three-types-of-acquisitions/

– facebook will – in the eyes of the press – go from darling to “evil”
over the next 5 years. (again, see google coverage).

– the next 1-2 years will mark the end of this “patternson cycle” (see
http://www.quora.com/What-are-the-underlying-reasons-for-The-Patterson-Cycle-…
after that, really interesting innovation will start gestating for
the next cycle.

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